林园“金身告破”，2025年业绩亏损背后：坚守“嘴巴经济”的逻辑与市场变局

Group 1 - The core argument of the article is that Lin Yuan's investment losses in 2025 are a result of a profound struggle between "long-termism" and "market cycles" [2][8] - Lin Yuan attributes the losses to short-term price fluctuations of his holdings and emphasizes that he will not adjust his core strategy, focusing on industries with stable demand, particularly in the "mouth economy" related to consumption and pharmaceuticals [3][9] - Lin Yuan's investment philosophy is based on the principle of "ability circle," which allows him to remain calm during tech stock booms and indifferent to real estate stock crashes [3][9] Group 2 - Lin Yuan acknowledges the potential of technology but chooses not to actively invest in it due to the uncertainties and rapid changes in the sector, preferring the "slow variables" of consumption and pharmaceuticals [10] - His investment list excludes banks, internet, and real estate stocks, citing compressed profit margins in banking, dual uncertainties in internet policy and competition, and the long adjustment cycles in real estate as reasons for avoidance [10][4] - Lin Yuan has heavily invested in the consumption and pharmaceutical sectors, believing they are "absolute tracks that will produce ten-thousand-fold enterprises," with key holdings like Kweichow Moutai and Baijiu [11][11] Group 3 - The market conditions in 2025 have not favored the "mouth economy," with weak consumption, medical procurement pressures, and single disease payment policies leading to significant underperformance compared to the CSI 300 index [11][11] - Despite the challenges, Lin Yuan chooses to hold and buy more in these sectors, believing they can provide relatively stable returns for investors [11][11] - The losses reflect a mismatch between long-term investment strategies and short-term market trends, with AI stocks becoming market focal points while Lin Yuan's chosen sectors face short-term pressures but hold hidden opportunities [11][12] Group 4 - Lin Yuan's experience illustrates the dichotomy in capital markets between short-term speculators and long-term value investors, emphasizing that patience is more important than timing in investment [12][12] - The narrative suggests that true value in investments does not fear being undervalued, and the market will eventually return to equilibrium [12][12]