中信证券:2026年中国有望迎来“温和再通胀”
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2026-01-10 02:26

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the PPI in December 2025 slightly exceeded market expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking the highest value since the beginning of 2024, driven primarily by surging prices in non-ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and silver [1] - The downstream industries are generally showing a trend of "continuing month-on-month decline with narrowing year-on-year declines," with the PPI for lithium-ion battery manufacturing and photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing narrowing for four and nine consecutive months, respectively [1] - There is a noted phenomenon of poor price transmission from upstream to downstream industries due to weak demand, which may pressure profit margins in certain downstream sectors as some upstream raw material prices surge [1] Group 2 - The CPI has shown a year-on-year increase for four consecutive months, reaching 0.8%, while the core CPI remains high at 1.2%, aligning with market expectations, with the expansion of food prices being the main driver for the recent CPI increase [1] - Since June 2025, the core CPI has entered a rapid upward trend, significantly influenced by a quick drop in the base figure, along with unexpected increases in gold jewelry prices, notable rises in certain service prices (especially medical and educational services), and improvements in durable consumer goods prices benefiting from national subsidies [1] - The overall price performance in 2025 shows that both PPI and CPI year-on-year figures were slightly weaker than in 2024, but the year exhibited a significant "front low, back high" characteristic, with a notable improvement in the price environment since the second half of 2025, suggesting a potential "mild re-inflation" in China in 2026 [1]