美国12月非农就业报告“提前泄露”，市场降息预期骤变

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm employment report for December 2025 revealed disappointing job growth, which has raised concerns about data confidentiality and market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1][3][4]. Employment Data Summary - The U.S. non-farm employment population increased by only 50,000 in December, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000 [3]. - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.4%, while the total non-farm employment increase for the year was 584,000, marking the worst annual performance since the COVID-19 pandemic [3]. Market Reaction Summary - Despite the poor employment data, U.S. stock markets rose, with the S&P 500 index reaching a historical high [4]. - Gold and silver prices increased, with gold nearing $4,500 and silver approaching $80 [4]. - The U.S. dollar reached its highest level since December 10 of the previous year, and U.S. Treasury yields remained stable [4]. Federal Reserve Expectations Summary - The employment report has effectively dashed market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in January, with the probability of no rate cut rising to 95% [4]. - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve is more focused on the unemployment rate rather than overall data noise, indicating that future rate decisions will depend on upcoming unemployment trends [4].