中信证券：市场向上震荡的概率更高

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the biggest expected divergence in 2026 will stem from the balance between external and internal demand, with a trend towards "taxing" external demand and subsidizing internal demand [1] - The market is expected to have a higher probability of a震荡向上的趋势 after the beginning of the year in a rising sentiment environment [1] - In the medium term, the focus is on sectors with relatively low heat and concentrated positions, but with increasing attention and catalysts, as well as potential long-term improvements in ROE, such as chemicals, engineering machinery, electric equipment, and new energy [1] Group 2 - New industrial themes, such as commercial aerospace, may continue to evolve and present opportunities [1] - There is a heightened focus on the policy logic changes triggered by the continuous appreciation of the RMB, with brokerage firms and insurance companies being considered as strategic choices from this perspective [1]