Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-10 05:54Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the U.S. job market continues to experience low hiring and low layoffs, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.4%, interrupting its upward trend [1] - Despite the drop in unemployment, new job additions are slowing down, and there may be further downward revisions in the upcoming annual data [1] - Given that the unemployment rate has not increased further and many employment indicators show a low risk of a job market slowdown, the Federal Reserve may still have room to pause interest rate cuts after three consecutive reductions [1] Group 2 - According to CME data, following the release of non-farm payroll data, the market anticipates only a 5% probability of an interest rate cut in January [1] - The market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice in 2026, but the timing has been pushed back to June and September of that year [1] - Future catalysts for rising expectations of rate cuts may primarily depend on the appointment and statements of the new Federal Reserve Chair [1]