埃及通胀率企稳 或为进一步降息创造空间

Core Viewpoint - Egypt's inflation rate remained unchanged at 12.3% in December, which may create conditions for the central bank to further lower borrowing costs in 2026 [1][3]. Inflation Data - The urban consumer price index in December showed a month-on-month inflation rate of 0.2%, down from 0.3% in November [1][3]. - Egypt experienced a historical peak inflation rate of 38% in September 2023 and received $57 billion in global rescue funds, leading to ongoing efforts to control inflation [1][3]. Factors Affecting Inflation - Despite a significant reduction in overall inflation over the past year, recent adjustments in fuel subsidies supported by the International Monetary Fund and a legal amendment causing rent increases for millions of properties have prevented inflation from falling to single-digit levels [1][3]. - Food and beverage prices, which constitute the largest single category of inflation, increased by 1.5% year-on-year in December but decreased by 0.7% month-on-month [4]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The decline in inflation has provided the central bank with room to lower interest rates, resulting in a cumulative reduction of 725 basis points over five monetary policy meetings [4]. - The current benchmark deposit rate stands at 20%, with the next rate decision scheduled for February 12 [4]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the benchmark deposit rate may be further reduced by 700 basis points by 2026 [4].