国泰海通：美国12月失业率回落 1月降息门槛仍高

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly dropped to 4.4% in December, interrupting the previous upward trend, while the November rate was revised down to 4.5% [2] - The U6 unemployment rate also showed a significant decline, indicating reduced pressure on marginally employed groups [2] - Average weekly working hours decreased but remained stable, and average hourly wage growth showed signs of recovery, with initial jobless claims remaining stable since December [2] Group 2 - Despite the temporary alleviation of concerns regarding the worsening employment situation, new job creation remains weak, with only 50,000 non-farm jobs added in December, below the market expectation of 65,000 [2] - The total non-farm employment for October and November was revised down by 76,000, indicating a slowdown in job growth [2] - Job creation in the goods-producing sector is weak, while the service sector's job growth is concentrated in education, healthcare, and leisure/hospitality [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve has room to pause interest rate cuts in January, as the unemployment rate has not risen further and many employment indicators suggest low risk of a rapid employment decline [3] - Following the release of non-farm data, the market's expectation for a rate cut in January is only 5% [3] - The market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026, but the timing has been pushed back to June and September [3]