Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-10 08:11Core Viewpoint - The storage chip price surge continues into 2026, affecting downstream sectors such as consumer electronics, AI hardware, and AIoT terminals, leading to price increases and downward adjustments in shipment volumes [1][3]. Price Increases in Storage Chips - In Q1 2026, general DRAM contract prices are expected to rise by 55% to 60%, while NAND flash prices will increase by 33% to 38%, with consumer-grade QLC products seeing a rise of at least 40% [3]. - Samsung and SK Hynix plan to raise server DRAM prices by 60% to 70% in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025 [3]. - The current cycle is driven by demand mismatch, capital expenditure, and technology migration, likely lasting until late 2026 or even 2027 [3]. Impact on Consumer Electronics - Major PC manufacturers like Lenovo, Dell, and HP are planning price increases of up to 20% due to rising storage costs, which have increased by 3 to 4 times [4]. - The average price of laptops over 5000 yuan has increased by 500 to 1500 yuan since the end of 2025 [4]. - TrendForce has revised down global smartphone shipment forecasts for 2026 from a 0.1% increase to a 2% decrease, and laptop shipments are expected to decline by 5.4%, potentially reaching a 10.1% decrease [6]. Smartphone Price Trends - The smartphone industry is experiencing a price increase due to rising storage costs, with IDC predicting the average smartphone price will reach $465 in 2026, generating $578.9 billion in revenue [7]. - Storage costs in smartphones have risen from 10%-15% to over 20%, with mid-range phones seeing storage costs close to 30% [7]. - Recent models from brands like Redmi and iQOO have seen price increases of 100 to 600 yuan [7]. AIoT Chip Manufacturers - AIoT chip manufacturers are experiencing varied impacts from storage price increases, with some transitioning from DDR4 to DDR5 due to price hikes [10]. - Companies like Rockchip report that while storage shortages and price increases affect demand, the growth in AIoT products mitigates these impacts [10]. - Other AIoT firms, such as Espressif, indicate that their use of NOR Flash means that price increases will not significantly affect demand [11]. Opportunities for Storage Industry Chain - Companies in the storage industry chain are benefiting from rising prices, with increased demand for chip testing services leading to higher utilization rates [12]. - The semiconductor testing equipment market is experiencing growth, with companies like Changchuan Technology reporting strong order volumes [12]. - The storage industry is expected to remain in a high-growth phase driven by price increases, technological advancements, and domestic replacements over the next 2-3 years [12].