盛松成：未来不排除继续降息，但更可能采取渐进式调整

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes a monetary policy approach focused on reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts as the primary tool, supplemented by interest rate cuts, to work in tandem with more proactive fiscal policies to stabilize economic operations [1] - The current external environment and domestic economy exhibit significant uncertainty, leading to a preference for gradual monetary policy adjustments rather than aggressive actions [1] - RRR cuts are deemed more relevant for the current Chinese economy, as the banking system plays a dominant role in the financial framework, with over 60% of government bonds and nearly 80% of local government bonds held by commercial banks [1] Group 2 - Caution is advised regarding substantial interest rate cuts due to the narrowing net interest margins of commercial banks, which have decreased to approximately 1.42% as of the end of Q3 2025, significantly lower than historical highs [2] - The reliance on indirect financing and the stability of the banking system are critical, as pressures on the financial system combined with real estate risks could pose greater challenges to macroeconomic stability [2] - There is still potential for interest rate cuts, given the low domestic price levels and positive real interest rates, with future adjustments likely to be gradual rather than drastic [2] - The importance of structural monetary policy tools is expected to rise, directing credit resources towards key areas such as technological innovation and the real estate "white list," enhancing policy support without significantly lowering overall interest rates [2]