反倾销+AI双驱动，这个赛道要起飞？

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor materials sector in A-shares has shown strong performance driven by a combination of policy support, surging demand from AI, and technological advancements, leading to significant investment opportunities in the industry [1][3][21]. Group 1: Demand Explosion - The AI computing revolution is expected to significantly increase demand, with global AI server shipments projected to exceed 3 million units by 2026, leading to a doubling of material usage per wafer due to new technologies [4][5]. - The global expansion of wafer fabs is set to add certainty to capacity growth, with 48 new fabs expected to come online in 2024, primarily in advanced 12-inch processes, further driving material demand [5]. Group 2: Technological Breakthroughs - Domestic companies have made substantial progress in achieving self-sufficiency in mature process materials, with over 40% localization rates for products like 8-inch silicon wafers and polishing liquids [6]. - The emergence of third-generation semiconductor materials, such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN), is creating new growth avenues, particularly in electric vehicles and 5G applications, with a compound annual growth rate exceeding 25% [6][7]. Group 3: Policy Support - The anti-dumping investigation into imported dichlorodihydrosilane from Japan is seen as a timely opportunity for domestic semiconductor materials, potentially increasing local market share if dumping is confirmed [8]. - Continuous domestic policy support, including significant funding from the National Integrated Circuit Investment Fund, is expected to accelerate breakthroughs in domestic materials [9][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The semiconductor materials market is characterized by a high concentration of foreign firms, particularly in high-end segments like silicon wafers and photoresists, where Japanese companies dominate [11][14]. - Despite progress in domestic production, critical segments such as EUV photoresists and high-end electronic gases remain heavily reliant on imports, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving full self-sufficiency [19][20]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are emerging in high-end segments with low localization rates, particularly in areas like ArF photoresists and advanced target materials, where domestic firms are poised to benefit from policy support and technological advancements [22]. - The anti-dumping measures are expected to create immediate benefits for domestic players in the chemical processing sector, particularly for dichlorodihydrosilane and upstream materials for photoresists [23]. - The demand-driven segments, particularly those related to AI and wafer fab expansions, are anticipated to experience exponential growth, presenting clear investment prospects [24].