光伏出口退税取消落地，组件企业或进一步加速出清

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding the adjustment of export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic products indicates a significant shift in the industry, with the cancellation of VAT export rebates expected to impact pricing and competition dynamics in the solar sector [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export rebate for photovoltaic products will be eliminated, and the rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% until December 31, 2026, after which it will also be canceled [1]. - The adjustment follows a previous reduction in export rebates for photovoltaic products at the end of 2024, with industry speculation about a complete cancellation since mid-2025 [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The cancellation of export rebates is expected to lead to an increase in photovoltaic product prices, potentially accelerating the industry's consolidation and pushing for upgrades to higher-value and more advanced technology products [1]. - Industry insiders indicate that the current pricing strategy of selling photovoltaic components at or below cost will be challenged, particularly affecting the competitiveness of second and third-tier companies [2]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association noted that since 2024, the industry has faced intense competition in overseas markets, leading to a "volume increase, price decrease" trend, which has negatively impacted domestic profits and increased the risk of international trade disputes [2]. Group 3: Export Trends - The export structure of Chinese photovoltaic products is shifting from a focus on component exports to upstream product exports, with a reported 13.2% year-on-year decline in export value from January to October 2025, amounting to a decrease of $24.42 billion [4]. - In the first ten months of 2025, the photovoltaic industry exported 218 GW of components, 88 GW of battery cells, and 58 GW of silicon wafers, compared to 206 GW, 46 GW, and 23 GW in the same period of 2024 [5].