管涛：股市汇市有各自运行逻辑 不应将股市涨简单归结为人民币升值

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is a misunderstanding in the market regarding the simultaneous rise and fall of the stock and foreign exchange markets, which should not be simply correlated [1][2] - The first misconception is that the stock and foreign exchange markets move together. The chief economist emphasizes that while both are asset prices, they are influenced by different factors [1] - The second misconception is that currency appreciation always leads to capital inflow, while depreciation leads to outflow. The decisive factor for capital flow is the structure of the balance of payments, not the exchange rate [1][2] Group 2 - The third misconception is that currency appreciation is always beneficial and depreciation is always detrimental. The actual situation can be more complex, as seen in Japan's stock market benefiting from a weaker yen [2] - The chief economist notes that the exchange rate often acts as a "shock absorber," allowing for timely responses to internal and external shocks, which helps to release pressures and expectations of appreciation or depreciation [2] - In the long term, the logic that "a strong economy leads to a strong currency" will support the future strength of the renminbi and the long-term positive outlook for China's capital market [2]