Here's Why I Wouldn't Touch Rivian With a 10-Foot Pole

Core Viewpoint - Rivian's status as a luxury electric vehicle (EV) maker is detrimental as consumer preferences shift towards used cars and entry-level new vehicles, leading to a significant decline in stock value since its IPO in 2021 [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Rivian's stock has decreased by approximately 80% since its IPO, indicating severe market underperformance compared to competitors like Tesla [1] - The current market capitalization of Rivian is $24 billion, with a current stock price of $19.22 [5] - Vehicle deliveries dropped sharply from 14,183 in Q4 2024 to 9,745 in Q4 2025, reflecting a broader trend of declining production and delivery numbers year over year [6] Group 2: Impact of EV Tax Credit - The expiration of the U.S. EV tax credit on September 30, 2025, has negatively impacted sales across the industry, including Rivian [4] - Despite a reported 78% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, this was largely due to a rush of buyers before the tax credit expired, and subsequent deliveries fell sharply, indicating that this growth was not sustainable [7] Group 3: Business Model Challenges - Over 70% of Rivian's total sales come from automobile sales, which are expected to decline, thereby also affecting the growth of its software revenue [8] - The company's luxury positioning is a disadvantage as consumers are increasingly seeking more affordable vehicle options amid tightening budgets [9]