Group 1 - The core viewpoint presented by Sheng Songcheng is that China's monetary policy is likely to adopt a "small step" approach, with a preference for reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts over interest rate reductions, while still allowing for some flexibility in both areas [1][2] - Sheng emphasizes that the monetary policy transmission mechanism in China is complex and relies heavily on the cooperation of commercial banks and the financial system, making it difficult for the central bank to precisely control changes at each stage of the transmission [1] - The central bank's toolbox for monetary policy has been expanding, with various liquidity support tools and secondary market treasury transactions being utilized to manage liquidity and stabilize interest rate fluctuations [2] Group 2 - Sheng argues that RRR cuts are more beneficial than interest rate cuts, as they increase the funds available for commercial banks, thereby better supporting proactive fiscal policies [2] - Since 2016, the statutory RRR has been cut 23 times, reducing the RRR for large deposit-taking financial institutions from 17.5% to 9%, a total decrease of 8.5 percentage points, while the policy interest rate has only been adjusted 14 times [2] - The current net interest margin of commercial banks is at a historical low of 1.42%, significantly down from over 3.5% in 2008, indicating that large interest rate cuts could further pressure banks' operations [3]
盛松成：适时降准降息 配合积极的财政政策
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao·2026-01-10 12:22