世局2026｜煽动民粹“消费中国”的高市早苗政权或遭反噬

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that under the impact of "Trump 2.0," the pace of multipolarity is accelerating, leading to a decline in the influence of the U.S. and the West, while the Global South is rising [1] - The report highlights the significant political changes in Japan, particularly the loss of majority seats by the ruling coalition in the House of Councillors elections in July 2025, and the election of Sanae Takaichi as the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [1][3] - Takaichi's leadership is characterized by a shift towards a more right-leaning political stance in Japan, with the LDP forming a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party after the Komeito party exited the ruling alliance [3][4] Group 2 - The report discusses the structural factors supporting Takaichi's rise, including the fragmentation of opposition parties and the rightward shift in Japanese politics, which has allowed the LDP to maintain its core position despite losing seats [4][6] - It notes that the political rightward shift in Japan is gradual and low-profile, with voters increasingly supporting stronger, security-focused political forces while still identifying as centrists [6][7] - The report emphasizes the role of populism in Takaichi's political strategy, utilizing emotionally charged issues to mobilize support, which has contributed to her high approval ratings despite mixed evaluations of her policies [8][9] Group 3 - Takaichi's controversial remarks regarding Taiwan have strained Japan-China relations, highlighting the risks associated with her assertive political style [10][12] - The report points out that Takaichi's statements on Taiwan reflect a long-standing political stance and are part of a broader trend of increasing militarization and defense spending in Japan [12][13] - It concludes that while Takaichi's government enjoys high approval ratings, its long-term stability will depend on its ability to address economic challenges and manage international relations effectively [16][17]