连平：直接融资占比逐步提升 反映出中国经济结构的深度调整

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's financial structure is undergoing significant changes, with a notable shift towards direct financing, which is expected to continue growing and eventually surpass indirect financing in the coming years [1][4][6]. Group 1: Financial Structure Changes - Direct financing has been accelerating, with its incremental share steadily increasing, contrasting with the historical dominance of indirect financing [1][4]. - As of November 2025, the share of indirect financing dropped to 45.7%, while direct financing rose to 47.4%, marking a significant shift not seen in decades [4][6]. - The traditional reliance on bank credit for sectors like real estate and infrastructure is diminishing, as high-tech and strategic emerging industries are rapidly rising and require more direct financing support [1][4][6]. Group 2: Future Financing Landscape - The demand for financing in the fiscal sector is expected to remain strong, supporting market stability without significant contraction [5]. - Traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure may see a slight rebound in financing needs, but they will not return to the previous high growth rates of 12% to 13% [5]. - The capital market is anticipated to develop positively, with a growing demand for stocks driven by high-tech industry listings and increased policy support [6]. Group 3: Implications of Direct Financing Growth - The ongoing optimization of China's financial structure is entering a critical phase, with direct financing likely to exceed 50% of the total financing landscape [6]. - This trend is expected to provide stable long-term funding, reduce financing costs, alleviate corporate debt pressure, and enhance capital allocation efficiency [6]. - The growth of direct financing may also address long-standing theoretical concerns regarding debt and leverage, potentially alleviating issues related to high M2 growth rates [6].