2026 is the year of obesity pills. Here's how they could reshape the GLP-1 market

Core Insights - The GLP-1 market is transitioning from weekly injections to daily oral pills, with Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill already available and Eli Lilly's expected soon, indicating a significant shift in obesity treatment options [1][7][30] Market Dynamics - The introduction of oral GLP-1 pills is expected to attract new patients, particularly those who prefer pills over injections, potentially expanding the obesity treatment market significantly [4][8] - Goldman Sachs analysts project that oral pills could capture approximately 24% of the global weight-loss drug market by 2030, equating to about $22 billion [7][30] Pricing and Accessibility - Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill is priced between $149 and $299 per month, making it a more affordable option compared to the cash prices of injections, which have been reduced to around $349 per month [2][13][15] - Patients with insurance may pay as little as $25 per month for the oral drug, although overall insurance coverage for GLP-1s remains uncertain [16][18] Patient Preferences - Many patients may prefer pills due to convenience and lower costs, with some expressing interest in switching from injections to oral medications [5][12][24] - The convenience of oral medications may appeal to those who are needle-averse or do not perceive their condition as severe enough to warrant injections [4][10] Competitive Landscape - Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 is anticipated to be more convenient due to its absorption characteristics and lack of dietary restrictions compared to Novo Nordisk's pill [25][30] - Other pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer and AstraZeneca, are also developing oral GLP-1 options, indicating a competitive race in the market [31][33] Efficacy and Treatment Options - Clinical trials suggest that while pills may not provide greater weight loss than injections, they could still be effective for patients seeking modest weight loss [3][21] - The highest dose of Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill resulted in an average weight loss of 16.6% over 64 weeks, comparable to its injectable form [28]