机构预测2026年泰国通胀率有望回升至正值

Core Viewpoint - Thailand's inflation rate is expected to recover from -0.14% in 2025 to 0.4% in 2026, although there are concerns about the risk of deflation due to the increasing proportion of declining prices in the consumer price index basket [1] Group 1: Inflation Recovery Factors - The recovery in inflation for 2026 is primarily influenced by a reduction in supply-side pressures, with expectations that energy prices will decrease alongside international market prices, leading domestic diesel retail prices to potentially fall below 30 Thai Baht per liter [1] - Prices of vegetables and fruits are anticipated to rise slightly, which will mitigate the downward pressure on inflation [1] Group 2: Core Inflation Trends - The core inflation rate is expected to remain positive but with a slower growth rate, as prices for various goods, particularly finished food products, non-alcoholic beverages, and seasonings, are projected to increase, albeit at a reduced pace [1] - This slowdown in price increases aligns with the weak purchasing power of domestic consumers [1] Group 3: Historical Context - In 2025, Thailand's inflation rate recorded a -0.14%, marking the first annual negative growth in nearly five years [1] - By December 2025, the inflation rate had been in negative territory for nine consecutive months, although the decline narrowed from -0.49% in November to -0.28% in December [1]