【点石成金】鸡蛋：现货上涨时点将至，盘面多头思维逐步占优

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that egg spot prices have shown signs of strengthening since the beginning of January 2025, with prices increasing from 121 yuan to 131 yuan for 45 jin of eggs within a week [1][18] - The egg production industry faced continuous losses throughout 2025, with only minor profits during early January and September, leading to a reversal in stocking sentiment in the second half of the year compared to the first half [5][21] - The chick stocking volume began to decline year-on-year from July 2025, with monthly sales from August to December showing a decline of approximately 10% each month [7][23] Group 2 - The demand side is expected to see an increase in purchasing due to holiday demand, which, combined with a reduction in supply, is likely to lead to a gradual increase in spot prices [10][26] - The strategy for the first half of 2026 suggests maintaining a bullish outlook on egg futures, with recommendations to buy on dips and consider a near-month long and far-month short strategy [13][29] - The production and culling dynamics indicate that the number of new laying hens will be lower than the number of hens to be culled, leading to a gradual reduction in the inventory of laying hens in the first half of 2026 [9][25]