Cardano Stalls at Breakout Point: Holder Shifts Now Weaken The 50% Rally Hope

Core Viewpoint - Cardano (ADA) is experiencing a slight decline but maintains a bullish structure, with buying pressure still present despite changes in holder behavior [1][2][4]. Price Movement - ADA has decreased approximately 2% in the last 24 hours and has been trending lower since January 6, yet the price has remained broadly flat over the past week [1]. - The price has defended the $0.383 support zone, which previously acted as resistance, preventing a deeper pullback [3]. Technical Analysis - Cardano is trading within a falling wedge pattern, which is typically considered bullish as selling pressure weakens [2]. - Momentum indicators, such as the Money Flow Index (MFI), show a divergence where ADA's price has trended lower while MFI has trended higher, indicating active dip buyers [4]. Holder Behavior - On-chain data reveals a divergence between long-term and short-term holders, with long-term holders increasingly distributing their assets. The spent coins age band for the 365-day to 2-year cohort rose sharply from approximately 1.92 million ADA to 4.51 million ADA, marking a 135% increase in just 24 hours [6]. - Conversely, short-term holders (30-day to 60-day cohort) have significantly reduced their selling activity, with spent coins dropping from around 55.42 million ADA to 4.28 million ADA, a nearly 92% decline, suggesting they may be absorbing supply rather than selling [7].