崔东树：2025年全国乘用车累计零售2378万辆 同比增长4%

Core Insights - The retail sales of passenger cars in December 2025 reached 2.3 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 13% but a month-on-month increase of 3% [1][7] - Cumulative retail sales for the year 2025 amounted to 23.78 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 4% [1][7] - The wholesale growth rate for passenger cars in 2025 is projected at 9%, with a 25% growth rate for new energy vehicles, aligning with the growth expectations set for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Retail Market Analysis - In December, the retail sales of fuel vehicles decreased by 30% year-on-year, while pure electric vehicle sales grew by 3% and range-extended vehicles increased by 19% [2] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in December reached 59%, indicating a significant shift towards a "new energy-dominated" market phase [2] - The cumulative export of self-owned fuel passenger vehicles in 2025 was 2.87 million units, down 7%, while self-owned new energy vehicle exports surged by 139% to 2.04 million units [2] Wholesale Market Trends - In December, the wholesale volume of passenger cars was 2.79 million units, down 9% year-on-year and 7% month-on-month, marking a rare decline for December [10][12] - The cumulative wholesale volume for the year reached 29.55 million units, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase [12] - The production of passenger cars in December was 2.79 million units, a decrease of 5% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month [14] Production Insights - The production of passenger cars in December was 2.79 million units, which is 140,000 units lower than the historical peak of 2.93 million units in December 2024 [13][14] - The overall production for the year 2025 reached 29.61 million units, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 10% [14] Export Performance - In December, the export of passenger cars (including complete vehicles and CKD) was 590,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 46% but a month-on-month decline of 2% [16] - The cumulative export for the year reached 5.74 million units, showing a 20% year-on-year growth [16] Inventory Dynamics - In December, the overall inventory of passenger cars decreased by 60,000 units, with a total inventory growth of 150,000 units for the year [19] - The inventory reduction in December was a result of proactive measures by manufacturers, contrasting with the previous year's inventory decline driven by retail demand [19] Promotional Strategies - The promotional intensity for new energy vehicles in December reached 10.1%, reflecting a stable promotional environment [22] - Traditional fuel vehicles maintained a promotional level of 24.3%, while luxury vehicles saw promotions rise to 29.1% [26][30] - The promotional pressure for conventional fuel and hybrid vehicles remained low, while new energy vehicle promotions were more aggressive [32]