国际观察丨2026，中东三大热点展望

Group 1: Iran Situation - Iran is facing significant internal and external challenges, including economic pressure from sanctions and rising inflation, leading to widespread protests [2] - The Iranian government is limited in its policy options due to the dual pressures of domestic economic hardship and Western sanctions [2] - There is an increased risk of external intervention, with potential military actions from the U.S. being a concern, especially in light of Iran's close ties with Venezuela [2] - The likelihood of direct conflict between Iran and Israel is heightened, particularly as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu seeks political leverage ahead of elections [2][3] - The prospects for progress on the Iran nuclear issue remain bleak, with ongoing tensions and a lack of meaningful dialogue with Western powers [3] Group 2: Israel-Palestine Conflict - The ceasefire in Gaza is fragile, with Israel focused on eliminating Hamas while Hamas demands complete withdrawal and recognition of Palestinian rights [4] - Internal divisions within Palestinian factions, particularly between Hamas and Fatah, pose significant obstacles to achieving lasting peace [5] - The U.S.-led peace initiatives are criticized for their structural flaws and lack of actionable solutions, which could hinder the reconstruction of Gaza [5] - Without substantial compromises from all parties, the Gaza situation may continue to deteriorate into prolonged conflict [5] Group 3: Regional Conflicts - Ongoing conflicts in Syria, Sudan, and Yemen are expected to be significant risk points in the Middle East for 2026 [6] - Syria faces challenges from internal political struggles, the presence of extremist groups, and external power dynamics, leading to an uncertain future [6] - The humanitarian crisis in Sudan is severe, with millions in need of aid, and the conflict is likely to persist without resolution [6] - Yemen's situation remains complex due to internal divisions and external interventions, complicating political solutions [6][7] - The interplay of internal conflicts, external interventions, and regional power struggles is likely to keep the Middle East in a state of instability, increasing risks of economic decline and extremism [7]