2026年的第一周 全球风险资产齐涨 投资者“情绪高涨”

Group 1: Market Overview - Global financial markets exhibit strong risk appetite, with major stock indices reaching historical highs as investors shift from defensive assets to cyclical sectors and high-risk assets [1][4] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.6%, while the Russell 2000 index surged by 4.6%, indicating broad market participation [1] - The A-share market in Asia also saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 4100-point mark and achieving a remarkable "16 consecutive days of gains" [2][10] Group 2: Commodity Market Performance - The commodity market performed well, driven by geopolitical factors and inflation expectations, with oil prices experiencing the largest single-day increase since October of the previous year [4][13] - Silver prices rose by 10% over the week, while gold approached historical highs, reflecting strong demand despite a strengthening dollar [4][14] Group 3: Credit Market Dynamics - The credit market joined the bullish trend, with junk bond spreads narrowing by 10 basis points, encouraging new corporate borrowing [8] - The U.S. administration's policies, including support for the real estate market, contributed to the upward momentum in the markets [8][9] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Despite a slight miss in U.S. non-farm payroll data, service sector activity expanded at its fastest pace in over a year, and productivity increased significantly [10][12] - The anticipated liquidity influx of $600 billion in the first quarter is expected to return basic liquidity to comfortable levels [6] Group 5: Investor Sentiment and Risks - Investor sentiment is high, with significant capital flowing into high-beta assets, as evidenced by the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF attracting $10 billion in just a few days [6] - However, there are concerns regarding the sustainability of this optimism, with some analysts questioning the market's speculative nature and potential risks associated with high valuations [19]