2026，中东将会走向何方？

Group 1: Iran Situation - Iran is facing significant internal and external pressures, leading to large-scale protests due to rising prices and currency devaluation, resulting in casualties [2] - The Iranian economy is under severe strain due to multiple rounds of Western sanctions since the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018, severely impacting living conditions and limiting government policy options [2] - The risk of external intervention is increasing, with Iran preparing for potential military actions, and the possibility of renewed conflict with Israel is notable as political dynamics shift ahead of the 2026 elections [2][3] Group 2: Israel-Palestine Conflict - The ceasefire agreement in Gaza, effective from October 10, 2025, remains uncertain, with Israel focused on eliminating Hamas and ensuring security, while Hamas demands complete withdrawal and recognition of Palestinian rights [4] - Internal Palestinian divisions pose significant obstacles to achieving lasting peace, as there is currently no political will to resolve the split between Hamas and Fatah [4] - The U.S.-led peace plan for Gaza is criticized for its structural flaws and lack of actionable items, with any changes in key issues potentially hindering the reconstruction process [4] Group 3: Regional Conflicts - Ongoing conflicts in Syria, Sudan, and Yemen are expected to be significant risk points in the Middle East for 2026 [5] - Syria faces challenges from internal ethnic and political struggles, the resurgence of extremist groups, and intensified external power dynamics, leading to an uncertain future [6] - The humanitarian crisis in Sudan is severe, with 30 million people in need of aid, and the conflict is likely to remain stagnant, risking further regional instability [6] - Yemen's prolonged division complicates political resolutions, with external interventions exacerbating the situation, and recent Israeli military maneuvers in the region heightening tensions [6]