Stocks Push Higher on US Economic Optimism

Group 1: Housing Market - US housing starts unexpectedly fell by 4.6% month-over-month to a 5.5-year low of 1.246 million, weaker than expectations of 1.330 million [1] - October building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell by 0.2% to 1.412 million, stronger than expectations of 1.350 million [1] - Home builders and home building suppliers are rallying after President Trump called for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds to lower long-term rates and spur housing demand [4][13] Group 2: Labor Market - US nonfarm payrolls rose by 50,000 in December, weaker than expectations of 70,000, with November's payrolls revised lower to 56,000 from 64,000 [2] - The December unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 4.4%, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected 4.5% [2] - Average hourly earnings rose more than expected, supporting the notion of a resilient labor market [5] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes are climbing on optimism regarding the economic outlook, supported by signs of a resilient labor market and mixed housing news [5] - The S&P 500 Index is up by 0.38%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by 0.21%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up by 0.59% [6] - Home builders and building suppliers are seeing significant gains, with Builders FirstSource up more than 7% and other major builders up more than 4% [13] Group 4: Inflation and Interest Rates - The University of Michigan's January 1-year inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.2%, while the 5-10 year expectations rose to 3.4% from 3.2% [7] - Rising inflation expectations are bearish for T-notes, with the 10-year breakeven inflation rate reaching a 1.5-month high of 2.296% [11] - The markets are discounting a 5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC's next meeting on January 27-28 [7]