美联储月末降息没戏？“新美联储通讯社”称12月非农就业给按兵不动铺路 交易员预计1月几无可能

Core Viewpoint - The December non-farm payroll report has led to a complete reversal of market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the end of the month, as the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4% despite only 50,000 new jobs being added [1][3][12]. Employment Data Summary - The December non-farm payroll report showed an increase of only 50,000 jobs, falling short of Wall Street's expectation of 65,000. Additionally, the previous two months' job numbers were revised down by a total of 76,000, with October's figures adjusted from a loss of 105,000 to a loss of 173,000, and November's from an increase of 64,000 to 56,000 [5]. - The average monthly job growth in the private sector over the last three months has dropped to 29,000, marking the second-lowest level for the year. The total non-farm employment increase for 2025 was only 584,000, the weakest annual performance since the pandemic caused a loss of 9.2 million jobs in 2020 [5]. - In terms of industry performance, healthcare added 21,000 jobs, while retail trade, construction, and manufacturing saw job losses. Out of 11 major sectors, five experienced declines in employment [7]. Unemployment Rate Insights - The unemployment rate fell from an initial estimate of 4.6% in November to 4.4% in December, which was below the expected 4.5%. This decline has temporarily alleviated the most severe concerns regarding the deterioration of the labor market [3][12]. - The drop in the unemployment rate was partly due to a decrease in the labor force participation rate, which fell to 62.4%, indicating that some unemployed individuals have exited the labor market and are no longer counted as actively seeking work [12]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the employment report, U.S. Treasury prices fell across the board, with yields rising by up to 3 basis points. The probability of a rate cut in January dropped to zero, with traders now expecting the first rate cut in June, approximately 50 basis points for the year [3][13]. - Analysts believe that the report supports the Fed's decision to maintain rates at the upcoming January meeting, as the combination of a declining unemployment rate and resilient wage growth suggests that the current rate levels may not be impacting the economy significantly [13][14]. Future Outlook - Economists anticipate that the focus for the Federal Reserve will shift towards inflation data and subsequent labor market performance to determine the pace and magnitude of potential rate cuts throughout the year [14].