地缘风险持续发酵 黄金获避险支撑

Group 1 - The core focus of the market remains on rising geopolitical risks, particularly following the U.S. expansion of oil export regulations on Venezuela, which supports gold's safe-haven demand [2] - Recent military actions in Caracas, Trump's controversial comments about Greenland, increased domestic unrest in Iran, and renewed tensions between China and Japan are contributing to a decline in risk appetite [2] - The U.S. is reportedly collaborating with Caracas to rebuild its oil and gas industry, with potential investments reaching approximately $100 billion [2] Group 2 - As of January 3, initial jobless claims in the U.S. slightly increased to 208,000, which is marginally below expectations [2] - The number of layoffs reported by Challenger companies in December fell to 35,553, marking the lowest level since July 2024 [2] - The U.S. trade deficit for October significantly narrowed to $29.4 billion, the smallest since June 2009 [2] Group 3 - Technically, spot gold is in a consolidation phase, maintaining a bullish outlook as prices remain above the rising 21-day simple moving average (approximately $4,387) [3] - Key support levels are identified between $4,400 and $4,380; a drop below this range could lead to a further decline towards the 50-day simple moving average (approximately $4,231) [3] - The immediate resistance level for gold is at $4,500; a sustained breakthrough could redirect focus towards record highs around $4,549 or higher [3]