纯碱基本面变化有限 预计震荡偏弱运行

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market is experiencing fluctuations due to changes in supply and demand dynamics, with a notable increase in inventory and production levels, while demand remains under pressure from the glass industry [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 9, 2026, the main contract for soda ash futures closed at 1228 CNY/ton, with a weekly K-line showing a downward trend and an increase in open interest by 217,876 contracts compared to the previous week [1]. - During the week of January 5-9, the soda ash futures opened at 1205 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 1277 CNY/ton and a low of 1170 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 1.57% [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Production - As of January 8, domestic soda ash manufacturers had a total inventory of 1.5727 million tons, an increase of 164,400 tons (11.67%) from the previous week. This includes 836,500 tons of light soda ash (up 104,300 tons) and 736,200 tons of heavy soda ash (up 60,100 tons) [3]. - The industry operating rate increased by 4.43%, and soda ash production rose by 8.11%. The commissioning of the second line at Alashan is expected to further enhance supply [3]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Caixin Futures, soda ash demand is being negatively impacted by a decline in float glass production, with short-term growth in demand expected to be negative. However, demand for light soda ash may increase due to the expansion of lithium carbonate production and improved exports [5]. - The overall production capacity of soda ash is projected to reach 44.6 million tons by 2026, influenced by significant new capacity additions. This high capacity may lead to a production strategy focused on "production as needed," putting pressure on cost lines for ammonia soda production [5]. - Zhengxin Futures suggests that short-term fluctuations in soda ash prices are primarily driven by commodity sentiment, with limited changes in the fundamentals. The market outlook remains cautious, with a focus on potential rebounds in glass production [5].