成本驱动节奏放缓 PTA期货盘面短期内观望为佳

Core Viewpoint - The PTA futures market shows a slight decline in price, with a weekly drop of 0.66%, while production and capacity utilization rates have increased slightly, indicating mixed signals in the market dynamics [1][3]. Market Performance - As of January 9, 2026, the main PTA futures contract closed at 5108 yuan/ton, with a weekly trading range from 5128 to 5210 yuan/ton, and a low of 5014 yuan/ton [1]. - The average processing margin for PTA in China was reported at 336.2 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.23% [1]. Production and Capacity - The weekly average capacity utilization rate for PTA was 74.2%, which is an increase of 0.35% from the previous week [1]. - Domestic PTA production reached 1.4312 million tons, showing an increase of 10,700 tons compared to the previous week [1]. Institutional Insights - Ningzheng Futures noted an enhanced expectation of inventory accumulation in Q1, with major polyester manufacturers planning to gradually reduce their operating rates, leading to limited self-driven demand for PTA [3]. - Guoxin Futures highlighted a decline in polyester operating expectations and significant compression of profit margins, indicating weakening downstream demand [3]. - The overall supply of PTA is expected to increase due to the restart of maintenance units, with January anticipated to begin inventory accumulation, although the pressure remains lower than in previous years [3].