中东，又变天了？

Core Viewpoint - The Middle East is experiencing a temporary calm after two years of turmoil, but a lasting and just new order remains elusive, indicating a fragile balance of power without real conflict resolution [1][31]. Geopolitical Dynamics - The influence of major powers in the Middle East has become multipolar, with the U.S. maintaining the strongest overall influence, while the EU and China have notable economic impacts, and Russia plays a role in specific countries [3][19]. - Following the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, Russia's influence in the Middle East has waned, particularly after the fall of the Assad regime in Syria in December 2024, which diminished its strategic foothold [3][19][25]. U.S. Military Presence - The U.S. has increased its military presence in the region, with troop numbers rising from 35,000 to approximately 50,000, including two aircraft carrier battle groups and six B-2 bombers, enhancing its military cooperation with Israel [4][20]. - Despite political backlash from its support of Israel, the U.S. military influence has strengthened, leading to a more unilateral approach in regional issues [4][20]. Israel's Strategic Ambitions - Israel's military and expansionist policies have gained momentum, with a shift from managing conflicts to a strategy aimed at the complete destruction of Hamas and the disarmament of Hezbollah [6][21]. - The reversal of Israel's "land for peace" policy since 2024 has led to increased tensions and a bleak outlook for peace negotiations with Palestine [7][22]. Resistance Movements - The resistance front, including Hezbollah and Iranian-backed groups, has faced significant setbacks, particularly after the Gaza conflict, which marked a turning point in Iran's regional influence [8][24]. - Hezbollah has suffered heavy losses, with its leadership nearly decimated and 80% of its weaponry destroyed, significantly weakening its position [8][24]. Syrian Political Landscape - The fall of the Assad regime has led to a reconfiguration of alliances in Syria, with the new government seeking to establish friendly relations with countries excluding Iran, marking a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape [9][25]. - The ongoing military interventions by various powers, including the U.S., Turkey, and Israel, complicate Syria's political transition and increase the risk of renewed conflict [14][29]. Lebanon's Internal Dynamics - Lebanon is experiencing a significant political shift, with the future of Hezbollah's disarmament becoming a central issue in the power struggle among various factions [30]. - The internal political landscape is characterized by three main groups: Hezbollah, radical factions, and moderate parties, each backed by external powers, complicating the path to disarmament [30].