美加央行路径分歧扩大 加元短期偏强但承压长期

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada, as well as the differing economic fundamentals of the two countries [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Federal Reserve shows internal disagreement regarding the pace of future interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for patience due to unstable inflation, while others favor earlier cuts to mitigate economic downturn risks [1] - The expectation of a more dovish new Fed chair, combined with the U.S. government's push for loose policies, is gradually increasing downward pressure on the USD in the medium to long term [1] - The Bank of Canada's recent strong employment data supports the CAD, but high unemployment rates and slowing wage growth provide room for potential rate cuts, adding uncertainty to the CAD's trajectory [1] Group 2: Economic Performance and Market Sentiment - Recent U.S. economic data, including GDP growth and retail sales, has been robust, bolstering market confidence in a "soft landing" and providing temporary support for the USD [2] - The narrowing interest rate differential between the U.S. and Canada, as the Fed shifts towards a dovish stance, poses a long-term downside risk for the USD/CAD exchange rate [2] - Structural risks, such as changes in U.S.-Canada trade relations and fluctuations in international oil prices, could lead to significant volatility in the exchange rate [2] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Traders are advised to monitor market sentiment and key technical levels for short-term trading opportunities, while focusing on central bank policy statements and core economic data for medium to long-term trends [2]