白银或面临“极端波动” 银价维持区域动荡

Core Insights - The silver market is currently facing short-term selling pressure due to rebalancing, but there are no significant signs of a major correction following its best annual performance since 1979. Long-term factors such as the continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, declining dollar credibility, rising geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank gold purchases are expected to maintain a bullish trend for silver [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs' latest analysis report warns of potential extreme price volatility in the silver market by 2026 due to persistently low inventory levels, which make prices highly sensitive to capital flows [1] - The report highlights that the weak inventory environment has created favorable conditions for market squeezes, where an influx of investor capital can rapidly absorb remaining silver in London vaults, leading to accelerated price increases [1] - The severe price fluctuations in the silver market are not directly caused by global supply shortages but rather by specific regional supply bottlenecks, particularly in London, which is a key location for global benchmark pricing [1] Group 2: Regulatory Impact - A significant variable is the new export restriction measures to be implemented by a major Asian country in 2026, requiring official approval for all silver exports. This policy is expected to exacerbate market volatility and could lead to fragmentation in the global silver market [2] Group 3: Current Market Trends - On Thursday, silver opened at 78.275, experienced a strong pullback to 70.02, and then rallied to close at 76.98, forming a long lower shadow hammer candlestick. The market is testing the upward trend line at 74.03, which has provided support since the major low of 48.64 on November 21 [2] - On Friday, silver prices showed volatility, enhancing bullish momentum against the EMA50 support, particularly after the relative strength index indicated positive signals following an oversold condition, suggesting a dominant bullish trend in the short term [2]