改善和稳定房地产市场预期，2026年房地产罕见“猛药”来了

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 "strong medicine" policy for the real estate market aims to address the industry's challenges and stabilize macroeconomic conditions, focusing on improving market expectations and promoting high-quality development after a prolonged adjustment period [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The real estate sector has faced significant declines since reaching peak levels in 2021, with real estate development investment dropping to 7.86 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of 2025, a decrease of over 40% from the peak [3]. - The sales area of commercial housing fell to 787 million square meters, a decline of over 50%, returning to levels seen in 2009 [3]. - The average price of second-hand homes in 30 major cities has decreased by 39% from historical peaks, reflecting ongoing low market confidence [3]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The "strong medicine" policy features a dual approach targeting both supply and demand, with significant measures aimed at reducing home purchase costs [5]. - Starting in 2026, the interest rate for existing housing provident fund loans will be reduced by 25 basis points, with the first-time homebuyer rate dropping to 2.6%, automatically effective without application [5]. - Local governments are also implementing measures such as increasing loan limits for families with multiple children and providing home purchase subsidies to lower barriers to homeownership [5]. Group 3: Market Response - The policy aims to reshape market expectations, with initial effects already visible, such as a 72.8% increase in property visits and a 37.4% rise in second-hand home viewings following the new policies in Beijing [8]. - The reaffirmation of real estate as a foundational industry for the national economy has corrected market perceptions and is expected to gradually restore market confidence [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The 2026 "strong medicine" policy is seen as a critical response to stabilize the market in the short term while aiming for long-term high-quality development [9]. - The policy window presents opportunities for rational home purchases, while the industry faces both risks and transformation opportunities [9]. - The market is expected to gradually achieve a balance between supply and demand, with a focus on risk control and quality improvement, supporting stable economic operations in the new five-year plan [9].