2026大宗商品王者之争

Core Insights - The global commodity market in 2025 is characterized by extreme polarization, with stark contrasts between "ice" and "fire" sectors, driven by macroeconomic changes, industry cycles, and supply-demand structural shifts [1][8][9] Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The black and energy chemical sectors are expected to remain weak due to weak demand, oversupply, and the transformation pains of traditional industries [2][3] - The overall price of the black industry chain is under significant pressure, with reduced demand from real estate and infrastructure leading to a decline in steel consumption and upstream raw material demand [2] - Energy chemical products face a weak demand environment, with real estate dragging down the demand for various products like PVC and glass, while supply expansion and import pressures exacerbate the oversupply situation [2][3] Group 2: Agricultural Products - Agricultural product prices are also declining, with hog prices hovering at historical lows and sugar prices hitting a five-year low, while corn and soybean prices are expected to recover only in the fourth quarter [3] - The prolonged "bottoming period" in the hog industry is attributed to slow capacity reduction and high frozen meat inventories, while sugar faces a supply surplus and weak consumption growth [3] Group 3: Precious and Base Metals - In contrast to the "ice" sectors, precious metals, base metals, and new energy metals are experiencing a structural bull market, with gold futures rising approximately 55% and silver over 140% in 2025 [5][6] - The surge in metal prices is driven by macroeconomic changes, explosive industrial demand, structural supply shortages, and a reallocation of global funds into these assets [5][6] - The copper market is particularly strong, supported by robust industrial demand and supply chain vulnerabilities, with predictions of a continued supply gap [6][14] Group 4: Future Outlook for 2026 - The futures market is expected to maintain a trend of structural differentiation and active trading in 2026, with continued growth in transaction volume and total funds driven by supportive policies and liquidity from the Fed's rate cuts [12][13] - Key sectors expected to shine include precious metals, base metals, and new energy sectors, with copper anticipated to lead due to persistent supply shortages and clear demand growth from energy transition and AI infrastructure [14]