美元走向如何重构货币秩序？首席经济学家热议汇率与货币体系演变

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing discussion highlights the gradual de-dollarization and the emergence of a more diversified currency landscape, with the dollar facing long-term challenges while the renminbi is expected to appreciate moderately under controlled conditions [1][4]. Currency Trends - Experts believe the dollar index is in a phase of adjustment, not a unilateral decline, while the renminbi has short-term appreciation potential but cannot solve structural economic issues through significant appreciation [2][3]. - The current high debt and deficit environment in the U.S. is exerting downward pressure on the dollar, with a notable decline in the dollar index over the past year, particularly against currencies of developed economies [2][3]. - The renminbi may reach around 6.8 in the short term, especially if the dollar weakens and seasonal factors come into play, but it is expected to fluctuate around 7 in the medium term [2][3]. Future Currency System - The international monetary system is undergoing structural changes, moving towards a decentralized and more diversified currency framework, rather than a sudden decline of the dollar [4][5]. - The importance of non-fiat assets like gold and commodities is increasing globally, as fiscal pressures and rising debt levels affect all major economies [4][5]. - The renminbi's international status is closely tied to improvements in domestic economic fundamentals and asset returns, with potential for increased use in international trade settlements [5][6]. Long-term Outlook - The dollar's share in global reserves may significantly decline over the next decade, but this does not imply a rapid decline in U.S. overall strength, as its advantages in technology and capital markets continue to support its currency status [5][6]. - The international monetary system may evolve into a tri-polar structure with the dollar, euro, and renminbi coexisting, contingent on the development of offshore renminbi markets and cross-border financing mechanisms [6].