Here's the Average Stock Market Return in the Last Decade and What Wall Street Expects in 2026

Core Insights - The S&P 500 index has returned 13.5% annually over the last decade, with a total return of 256% excluding dividends and 323% including dividends [3][4][7] - Wall Street forecasts a 10% increase in the S&P 500 for the remainder of 2026, indicating optimism about future market performance [6][7] Company and Index Performance - The S&P 500 tracks 500 large-cap U.S. companies, representing over 80% of domestic equities by market value, with a minimum market value requirement of $22.7 billion for inclusion [3] - The index is rebalanced quarterly, with recent additions including CRH, Carvana, and Comfort Systems [4] - The top five holdings by weight in the S&P 500 are Nvidia (7.7%), Apple (6.5%), Microsoft (6%), Alphabet (5.7%), and Amazon (3.9%) [8] Historical Context and Future Expectations - The 30-year average annual return for the S&P 500 is 8.4% excluding dividends and 10.4% including dividends, suggesting future returns may align closer to these averages [5] - Analysts are generally optimistic about the stock market's potential returns in 2026, with various investment banks providing year-end targets for the S&P 500 [6][7]