2026最大的交易主题：输不起的特朗普 国际秩序的终结

Group 1 - The core narrative for 2026 is shaped by the midterm elections, with the Trump administration under pressure to improve its approval ratings, currently around 40%, to avoid losing congressional control [3][4] - The administration's strategy will focus on achieving "affordability" by implementing aggressive deflationary measures, particularly through controlling energy resources to lower oil prices significantly [1][5] - The goal is to reduce gasoline prices to approximately $2.25 per gallon before the elections, which could lead to oil prices dropping to the $40-$50 range [5][6] Group 2 - The abandonment of the U.S. as a traditional guarantor of the international system will increase global geopolitical insecurity, providing strong support for gold and benefiting the defense industry [2][10] - Emerging market stocks may face valuation re-evaluation risks as the security premium for smaller economies diminishes in a return to power politics [2][10] - The anticipated fiscal stimulus, potentially involving $2,000 checks for low-income Americans funded by tariff revenues, could create upward pressure on long-term U.S. Treasury yields and alter the macro liquidity environment [4][7][8] Group 3 - The aggressive geopolitical actions taken by the U.S. to control oil prices signal the end of the rules-based international order, impacting asset allocation strategies [9][10] - The defense sector is expected to benefit from increased spending due to heightened security concerns, while gold is projected to have over 10% upside potential as a hedge against a disorderly world [10] - The current high valuations in the stock market, particularly in relation to AI, pose significant risks, with potential declines threatening economic stability and fiscal deficits [11]