莲华资产洪灏：黄金成估值锚，白银上涨进程未结束

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that under the new credit system, gold will serve as the "anchor" for the valuation of all assets, with a fair valuation range estimated between $4,300 and $4,500, allowing for a margin of error of approximately $200 [1] - The significance of gold slightly reaching a historical high is limited; the real impact on the investment landscape will come from other assets priced based on gold [1] - If gold prices maintain at the fair level of $4,500, other base metals are expected to see considerable upside due to current low historical ratios such as gold-silver, gold-copper, and gold-oil [2] Group 2 - Silver's nominal and real prices have both surpassed historical trend lines, indicating that "new highs are meant to be bought," which serves as an important reference for investment decisions [2] - The analysis suggests that global liquidity indicators lead asset prices by 3-6 months, and stock market trends lead fundamental changes by the same duration, making liquidity a long-term reference tool for predicting fundamentals [2] - The current improvement in global liquidity implies that the upward trend for silver is far from over [2] Group 3 - In terms of portfolio construction, the recommendation is to create an "all-weather" portfolio that includes gold, bonds, stocks, commodities, and Bitcoin, which are low or negatively correlated asset classes [2] - Even with high-risk assets in the portfolio, the overall risk level can be effectively reduced due to the hedging properties among the assets [2] - It is noted that gold and stocks do not always exhibit a hedging relationship, as there have been instances of both assets moving in the same direction [2]