香江观澜：机构看好香港楼市2026年迎新一轮上升周期

Core Viewpoint - Multiple institutions are optimistic about the Hong Kong real estate market entering a new upward cycle in 2026, driven by favorable economic conditions, interest rate cuts, and wealth effects [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, Hong Kong's real estate market showed strong performance, with a total of 80,702 property sale agreements registered, the highest in four years, and a total transaction value of HKD 614.277 billion, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase [1]. - The first large new property launch of the year, "Sierra Sea 2A," received over 42,000 subscription applications before its sale, indicating a 197-fold oversubscription, marking a record for initial sales in Hong Kong [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Buyer Confidence - The recent positive market sentiment is reflected in the increase of 1.5% in property viewings for the "Top Ten Estates" indicator, suggesting growing buyer confidence [3]. - Real estate agents are ramping up their operations in both primary and secondary markets, anticipating increased transaction volumes and revenue [3]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Factors - The Hong Kong government has implemented several policies to stimulate the real estate market, including the full withdrawal of demand management measures and reductions in stamp duty, which have significantly lowered property acquisition costs [4]. - The ongoing interest rate cut cycle has brought the best lending rates back to pre-2022 levels, further reducing mortgage costs and supporting housing demand [4]. - The current economic environment, coupled with the national "14th Five-Year Plan," is expected to create new opportunities for Hong Kong's technology and financial sectors, contributing to a healthier and more sustainable real estate market [4].