2026年能源经济预测与展望研究报告在京发布

Core Viewpoint - The "2026 Energy Economic Forecast and Outlook Research Report" was released, highlighting the development trends and challenges in China's energy sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and beyond [1][2]. Group 1: Energy Development Outlook - The report on China's energy development during the 14th Five-Year Plan indicates that a sustainable internal driving force for the new energy system has been established, with traditional fossil energy consumption expected to enter a historical downward trend [2]. - The development of new energy is seen as a key pathway for macroeconomic counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical regulation, contributing significantly to both qualitative and quantitative economic growth [2]. Group 2: Energy Economic Situation - The 2026 China Energy Economic Index report suggests that the macroeconomic situation in 2025 improved steadily with the support of the energy economy, and the hydrogen energy sector is expected to maintain strong momentum alongside batteries and photovoltaics in 2026 [3]. - The report emphasizes the need for the energy sector to enhance quality and efficiency through "anti-involution" policies, supported by traditional energy sources [3]. Group 3: Global Energy Transition - The global energy transition index report indicates that by 2024, the overall energy transition is expected to surpass 2015 levels, although the polarization of energy trade networks has increased system vulnerability [3]. - China ranks 13th globally in energy transition, with potential for improvement in sustainability dimensions [3]. Group 4: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil price analysis predicts that in 2026, the fundamental support for oil prices will weaken, leading to a more relaxed overall market structure, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices expected to average between $53-63 and $49-59 per barrel, respectively [3]. Group 5: Carbon Market Insights - The carbon market report highlights significant growth in the national carbon market in 2025, with an expanded coverage scale and enhanced policy influence and market expectations [4]. - Future efforts are needed to boost market trading vitality and align with global carbon pricing mechanisms and cross-border emission reduction rules [4]. Group 6: Low-Carbon Computing Services - The low-carbon computing services report indicates that China's computing industry is entering a critical transformation phase focused on green, low-carbon, and efficient services [4]. - The report calls for the establishment of a low-carbon computing service system that integrates various market types and enhances sustainability [4].