沈建光：“十五五”中国数字消费发展的五大趋势

Core Insights - The Chinese digital consumption market is experiencing significant growth, with e-commerce transactions expected to reach 46.4 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the world's largest online retail market for 12 consecutive years [1] - The market is shifting from user scale expansion to value extraction, focusing on existing users rather than acquiring new ones [2][3] - The integration of online and offline sales channels is becoming more pronounced, with instant retail emerging as a key driver of this trend [5][6] - Artificial intelligence is playing a crucial role in reshaping the consumer experience, enhancing personalization and operational efficiency [8][9] - Rural areas are becoming vital for digital consumption growth, with increasing internet penetration and a rising number of online consumers [10][11] - The focus is shifting from product consumption to service-oriented and green consumption, reflecting changing consumer preferences and environmental awareness [12][13][14] Group 1: Market Overview - In 2024, China's e-commerce retail sales are projected to account for 47% of total retail sales, significantly higher than in developed countries [2] - The digital consumption user base is expected to exceed 958 million by mid-2025, representing 85.3% of internet users [2] Group 2: Trends in Digital Consumption - The development model is transitioning from user scale expansion to deep value extraction from existing users, with live commerce and content commerce leading this change [3] - Instant retail is blurring the lines between online and offline shopping, with a projected market size of 781 billion yuan in 2024 [5][6] Group 3: Technological Advancements - AI technology is rapidly advancing in China, with significant improvements in model performance and application across various sectors [8] - AI is transforming the consumer journey, enabling personalized recommendations and automating service processes [9] Group 4: Rural Market Dynamics - Rural internet users are growing, with 322 million rural internet users by mid-2025, representing 28.7% of total internet users [10] - The rural market is becoming a new growth source for online consumption, with a significant increase in express delivery services to rural areas [11] Group 5: Consumption Shifts - Digital service consumption is on the rise, with online education and internet healthcare seeing substantial user growth [13] - Green consumption is gaining traction, with a notable increase in second-hand e-commerce transactions and a shift towards sustainable purchasing behaviors [14]