巴扎商人点燃“火药桶”，美以干涉伊朗迫在眉睫？
Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-01-11 13:20

Core Viewpoint - Iran is experiencing significant turmoil due to currency devaluation and rising prices, leading to widespread protests and potential shifts in the Middle East dynamics [1][3]. Economic Conditions - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that Iran's GDP per capita for 2025 is approximately $4,070, a decline from 2024 and significantly lower than the peaks in 2011 and 2012 [3]. - The Iranian rial depreciated over one-third against the US dollar in 2025, with the current exchange rate at about 1,500,000 rials per dollar, severely impacting citizens' purchasing power [3]. - The inflation rate reached 52% year-on-year in December 2025, exacerbating the economic struggles of ordinary Iranians [3]. Social Unrest - Protests initiated by economic grievances have escalated into a political movement, with significant participation from bazaar merchants, who historically hold political influence in Iran [4]. - The Iranian government announced a subsidy of 10 million rials (approximately 48 RMB) per month for eligible citizens starting January 10, 2026, aimed at alleviating economic burdens, though many view it as insufficient [4][8]. - Internet service disruptions have been implemented in response to the protests, with the current situation being more severe than previous instances in 2019 [5]. Government Response - The Iranian government maintains control over the domestic situation, with officials warning against price gouging and ensuring adequate supply of goods [4][8]. - Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, has called for unity among the populace to counter external threats, particularly from the US and Israel [6][8]. International Implications - The protests are perceived as being influenced by external forces, particularly the US and Israel, with discussions of potential military actions against Iran being reported [6][9]. - The Iranian government has indicated that any military action from the US would be met with retaliation against US and Israeli military bases in the region [9].