债市 | 逢高配置

Group 1 - The bond market experienced significant volatility at the beginning of January, with a notable sell-off driven by emotional responses rather than fundamental changes [1][14] - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose to 1.89% and the 30-year bond to 2.30%, reflecting a general upward trend in yields across various maturities [5][9] - Institutional investors have reduced their duration risk, with the average duration of interest rate bond funds decreasing from 3.58 years to 3.37 years since the start of January, indicating a low-risk state in the bond market [15] Group 2 - In mid-January, market focus will likely center on three main themes: changes in the economic fundamentals, the supply and structure of government bonds, and the stability of funding [2][18] - Recent economic indicators, including a PMI of 50.1% and CPI and PPI figures, suggest a slight recovery in the economic fundamentals, although the bond market may view these changes as a rebound from previous lows [18] - The government bond issuance is expected to accelerate in the first quarter, with net financing projected to be around 4.1 trillion yuan, similar to the previous year [19] Group 3 - The funding environment is expected to be impacted by a significant tax payment period in January, with a funding gap estimated to exceed 2 trillion yuan, although historical trends suggest that funding rates typically return to lower levels post-tax period [3][22] - The market is also concerned about the upcoming maturity of a large volume of fixed deposits, which could influence the demand for alternative financial products [23] Group 4 - The bond market's current pricing appears to be high, with the 10-year government bond yield facing a resistance level at 1.90%, while the 30-year bond yield is estimated to have a reasonable cap around 2.30% [26] - Despite the ongoing volatility and concerns regarding inflation and stock market performance, the recommendation for trading accounts is to prioritize stability, while allocation accounts may consider locking in current yields [26]