2026年资产价格走势怎么看？5位首席给出答案

Group 1 - The core logic for 2026 is "a rising tide lifts all boats," indicating that various asset classes will have opportunities, but volatility may increase compared to 2025 [4] - The stock market's key focus is not on index peaks but on whether new and old growth drivers can resonate together, with technology remaining the main theme [5] - The bond market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in interest rates, reflecting structural changes in the macro economy [5] Group 2 - From a country allocation perspective, the gradual appreciation of the RMB presents a revaluation opportunity for Chinese assets, which have medium to long-term allocation value [6] - Long-term prospects for equity assets are positive, but valuation has significantly increased since September 2024, necessitating a reduction in return expectations [6] - The commodity market is anticipated to enter a "super cycle" due to de-globalization and supply chain reconstruction, although participation requires careful risk management [6] Group 3 - The commodity market is expected to see a healthy rotation, transitioning from gold to industrial metals like copper and aluminum, and then to new energy products [7] - 2026 is projected to be a significant year for commodities, with both trends in gold and copper continuing, as well as potential for low-priced commodities to surge [8] - In a declining risk-free interest rate environment, asset allocation should prioritize offensive directions, particularly in the stock market and commodities [8]