Magnificent 7’s Stock Market Dominance Shows Signs of Cracking

Core Viewpoint - The current market dynamics indicate a shift in investor sentiment, with a focus on earnings growth and stock selection rather than solely relying on major tech companies for returns. The Magnificent 7 index is experiencing slower profit growth, prompting investors to seek more quality management and tangible returns on investments in AI and technology [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Valuations and Earnings Growth - The Magnificent 7 index is currently priced at 29 times projected profits for the next 12 months, significantly lower than the 40s multiples seen earlier in the decade [1]. - Profits for the Magnificent 7 are expected to grow by approximately 18% in 2026, which is the slowest pace since 2022, and only slightly better than the 13% growth projected for the remaining S&P 500 companies [1]. Group 2: Performance of Major Tech Companies - Nvidia has seen a remarkable stock increase of 1,165% since the end of 2022, but it has lost 11% since reaching its record high on October 29 [6]. - Microsoft is projected to invest nearly $100 billion in capital expenditures during its current fiscal year, with expectations to rise to $116 billion the following year [8]. - Apple’s stock fell nearly 20% through early August but rebounded with a 34% increase by year-end, driven by strong iPhone sales despite its conservative approach to AI investments [11][12]. - Alphabet's stock rose over 65% last year, benefiting from its strong position in the AI landscape, but its shares are trading at around 28 times estimated earnings, above its five-year average [13][14]. - Amazon, despite being the weakest performer in the Magnificent 7 in 2025, has shown strong early performance in 2026, driven by growth in Amazon Web Services [15][16]. - Meta Platforms has faced skepticism regarding its heavy AI spending, with a significant drop in stock value following increased capital expenditure forecasts [17][18]. - Tesla's shares were the worst performers in the Magnificent 7 in the first half of 2025 but rebounded over 40% in the second half, with revenue projected to rise 12% in 2026 after a contraction in 2025 [19][20].