港股周观点 | 港股或迎三因素共振上行

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market sentiment index has entered a panic zone, historically indicating a high probability of price increases in the following month, with current factors such as overseas liquidity easing, accelerated capital inflows, and upward revisions in profit expectations contributing to a potential rally in the market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Performance - The Hong Kong stock sentiment index fell to 28.6, marking its return to the panic zone for the first time in four months, with a historical average increase probability of 76% for the Hang Seng Index (HSI) 30 days after entering this zone [2][4]. - Since October 2023, there have been seven signals indicating a 100% success rate, with an average HSI increase of 4% expected in the next month [2][4]. - The current implied probabilities for the HSI reaching 27,000 points by the end of January and February are only 25% and 39%, respectively, indicating a positive expectation gap [2]. Group 2: Liquidity and Capital Inflows - Expectations for overseas liquidity easing are rising, with U.S. Treasury Secretary indicating potential announcements regarding the next Federal Reserve chair around the World Economic Forum [4]. - Foreign capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks accelerated, with a record inflow of $1.54 billion in a week, the highest since February 1998, alongside significant southbound capital inflows of nearly 30 billion RMB [4]. - January typically sees a seasonal increase in southbound capital inflows, historically accounting for about 13% of the annual total [4]. Group 3: Profit Expectations and Sector Performance - The MSCI China Bloomberg profit expectations have been revised upward by 0.9% over the past four weeks, with expectations for major economic data in January and February lacking strong anchors due to seasonal effects [4][6]. - Sectors such as upstream resources, public industries, TMT, and essential consumer goods have shown significant improvements in sentiment over the past three months, while sectors like steel and real estate have seen downward revisions in profit expectations [6][40]. - The AH premium index has risen to a peak of 122.7, indicating that Hong Kong stocks may enter a relative yield period as A-shares have outperformed recently [5].