债市持续调整机构看好“类固收”策略产品机会

Group 1 - The A-share market continues to strengthen while the bond market faces adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to around 1.90% [1] - Private equity institutions believe that the bond market's acceptance of recession narratives has significantly decreased, indicating a shift away from the previous "lying win" investment strategy based on declining interest rates [1][6] - The current economic recovery signals, along with rising inflation expectations, have led to a reversal in the bond market's attitude towards recession narratives for 2023-2024 [2] Group 2 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield remains high at around 4.8%, despite a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025 [3] - The "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds is becoming more pronounced, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a high point last seen in September 2024 [4] - Analysts expect limited upward momentum for the 10-year government bond yield in the short term, suggesting that investors should seize opportunities for increased allocations at the beginning of the year [4] Group 3 - The net supply of interest rate bonds is projected to reach 17.4 trillion yuan in 2026, indicating a significant increase compared to 2025 [5] - The demand for bonds is expected to slow down due to challenges in improving real financing needs and the ongoing downward trend in broad interest rates [5] - The current low interest rate environment is leading to a shift in asset allocation strategies, with a growing opportunity for "class fixed income" strategy products as traditional models become less effective [6][7]