债市持续调整 机构看好“类固收”策略产品机会

Group 1 - The A-share market is strengthening while the bond market is experiencing continuous adjustments, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to around 1.90% [1] - Private equity institutions believe that the bond market's acceptance of recession narratives has significantly decreased, indicating a shift away from the previous "lying win" investment strategy based on declining interest rates [1][6] - The recent increase in CPI and PPI suggests a warming domestic economy, leading to heightened inflation expectations and a reversal in the bond market's attitude towards recession narratives [2] Group 2 - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond yield remains relatively high at around 4.8%, despite a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by the Federal Reserve [3] - The "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds is becoming more pronounced, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a high point not seen since September 2024 [4] - Analysts expect limited upward momentum for the 10-year government bond yield in the short term, suggesting that investors should seize opportunities for increased allocations at the beginning of the year [4] Group 3 - The net supply of interest rate bonds is projected to reach 17.4 trillion yuan in 2026, indicating a significant increase compared to 2025 [5] - Despite the anticipated increase in bond supply, the demand for bonds may not improve significantly due to challenges in real financing needs and a downward trend in loan rates [5] - The current low interest rate environment is leading to a shift in asset allocation strategies, with a growing opportunity for "class fixed income" strategy products [6][7]