巴扎商人点燃“火药桶”： 恶性通胀引发伊朗动荡

Core Viewpoint - Iran is experiencing significant unrest due to rising prices and currency devaluation, which analysts believe will impact the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East [1] Economic Conditions - According to the IMF, Iran's GDP per capita in 2025 is projected to be approximately $4,070, a decline from 2024 and significantly lower than the peaks in 2011 and 2012 [2] - The Iranian Rial depreciated over one-third against the US dollar in 2025, with the exchange rate reaching around 1.5 million Rials per dollar [2] - The inflation rate in December 2025 reached 52% year-on-year, severely affecting the purchasing power of ordinary Iranians [2] Social Unrest - The protests, initially sparked by economic issues, have escalated into a political movement, with significant participation from bazaar merchants, who historically hold political influence in Iran [3] - The Iranian government announced a subsidy of 10 million Rials (approximately 48 RMB) per month for eligible citizens starting January 10, 2026, but many citizens view this as insufficient against rising prices [3] - Internet services in Iran have been severely disrupted, complicating communication and commerce, with reports of a nationwide internet shutdown [4][5] Government Response - The Iranian government has maintained control over the situation but has warned against hoarding and price gouging, while also monitoring national prices [3][7] - Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Khamenei, has called for unity among the populace to counter perceived external threats, particularly from the US and Israel [7] - The Iranian government is focusing on eradicating corruption and improving living conditions as a means to address the unrest [7] International Implications - The US and Israel are perceived as external actors influencing the protests, with US officials discussing potential military options against Iran [8] - Iran has warned that any military action from the US would result in retaliation against US and Israeli military bases in the region [8]