Monetary Policy Outlook - The possibility of a "small step" approach in monetary policy is high in the near term, with room for both reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - Monetary policy typically focuses on short- to medium-term goals and requires cooperation from the private sector, commercial banks, and the entire financial system for effective implementation [2] Tools and Strategies - The toolbox for monetary policy in China is becoming increasingly rich, with the central bank enhancing the role of policy rates and using various liquidity support tools and secondary market government bond transactions to manage liquidity and adjust funding costs [2] - RRR cuts are preferred over interest rate cuts, as there is still significant room for RRR reductions compared to major central banks globally [3] Banking Sector Insights - As of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks is at a historical low of 1.42%, which may influence the preference for RRR cuts over significant interest rate reductions [3] - The low interest rate elasticity of consumption and investment means that interest rate cuts have limited effects on stimulating these areas, as businesses prioritize investment risks and profits over minor interest rate changes [3] Inflation and External Environment - Current low inflation rates lead to higher real interest rates, with CPI growth at only 0.2% in 2024 and zero growth in 2025, while PPI remains in negative territory [4] - The external environment for interest rate cuts is improving due to the appreciation of the RMB and the Federal Reserve's ongoing rate cut cycle [4] Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The central bank is innovating with a series of structural monetary policy tools to guide credit structure adjustments, which can provide both quantity and price incentives [4] - There is potential for interest rate cuts through structural tools, particularly to support technological innovation and economically weaker sectors [4]
中欧国际工商学院教授盛松成：货币政策“小步走”可能性较大 降准降息仍有空间
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2026-01-11 18:51